1 in 3 in Wales want majority in each UK nation to vote in favour of leaving EU before UK withdrawal

Around a third of the Welsh population would not be satisfied to see the UK leaving the European Union on the basis of a majority vote across the UK (in the event of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union in 2017) but would instead want to see a majority of voters in each UK nation voting in favour of leaving.

Beaufort’s latest opinion poll for the Western Mail shows that, if the Conservative Government were to hold a referendum in 2017, just over half of the Welsh population (55%) feel an overall majority across the UK as a whole voting in favour of leaving would be sufficient for the UK to leave. At the same time, a significant minority (32%) feel the UK should only leave if a majority of voters in each nation vote to do so. The remaining 13% weren’t able to give an opinion.

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The sample of over 1,000 adults across Wales questioned in late November / early December 2014 was asked the following question:

The Prime Minister David Cameron has said he wants there to be a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union in 2017. This would give voters a choice of voting for the UK to stay in the European Union or for the UK to leave the European Union.

I’d like you to think about how the decision should be made, not necessarily how you personally would vote.

Q.  If such a referendum takes place, should the UK only leave the European Union if, individually, a majority of voters in each UK nation (that is England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) vote in favour of leaving, or would it be enough to have a majority across the UK as a whole vote to leave?


Those most likely to say the UK should only leave the EU if a majority in each nation votes in favour of leaving were:

• Those in the upper middle classes (ABs) (at 44% compared to 32% overall)
• Those living in Cardiff and South East Wales and West South Wales (i.e. Bridgend, Neath Port Talbot and Swansea) (at 40% and 37% respectively)
• Those aged 25-44 (37%)
• Fluent Welsh speakers (36%)

Conversely, those most likely to be satisfied with an overall majority across the UK as a whole voting in favour of leaving were:

• Those in the C1 (lower middle class) and C2 (skilled working class) socioeconomic grades (61% and 58% compared to 55% overall)
• Those living in Mid / West Wales and the Valleys (at 65% and 63% respectively)
• Those aged 55 and over (62%)

 

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