More in Wales would vote for UK to stay in the EU in planned referendum, than would vote to leave

Following the 2015 general election, the re-elected Prime Minister David Cameron reiterated a Conservative Party manifesto commitment to hold an 'in-out' referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union by the end of 2017, following renegotiations with EU leaders.

Beaufort’s latest opinion poll for the Western Mail shows that, regardless of any renegotiation, more than a quarter (26%) of the Welsh population is likely to vote for the UK to stay in the EU, double the proportion (13%) who say they are likely to vote for the UK to leave. However, the outcome is likely to be influenced by the Government’s negotiations, as a further three in ten (31%) say how they will vote will depend on the result of the discussions - 20% say they will vote for the UK to stay in the EU if they are satisfied with the outcome, while 11% say the reverse. At the same time, a high proportion of the electorate in Wales are either undecided on how they might vote (18%) or say they are unlikely to vote at all (11%).



Those most likely to say they will vote for the UK to stay in the EU, regardless of any renegotiation were:

• Those in the upper middle classes (ABs) (at 38% compared to 26% overall)
• Welsh speakers (30%)
• Those living in Cardiff and South East Wales and West South Wales (i.e. Bridgend, Neath Port Talbot and Swansea) (both at 30% respectively)

Conversely, those most likely to say they will vote to leave the EU, again regardless of the outcome of any renegotiation were:

• Those in the C2 (skilled working class) socioeconomic grades (16% compared to 13% overall)
• Those aged 55 and over (16%)


Those least likely to vote were younger people aged 16 to 34 (17%) and those from lower social grades (DE - semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers, trainees, casual workers and those dependent on state benefits) (16%). These groups were also the most likely to be unsure of how they might vote, with 22% & 24% responding ‘don’t know/depends’ respectively.

The sample of over 1,000 adults across Wales questioned in June 2015 was asked the following question:

The UK Government intends to hold a referendum by 2017 on whether the UK should stay in the European Union (EU) or leave. Before the referendum, the Government will seek to renegotiate the UK’s membership of the EU.

Essentially this means the Government will ask for some changes, such as imposing a waiting period on when EU migrants can claim in-work benefits after arriving in Britain and scrapping limits on the number of hours people can work.

Q: Which one of the following options best reflects how you intend to vote in the referendum?

o I will vote for the UK to stay in the European Union regardless of any renegotiation
o If I am satisfied with the renegotiation, I will vote for the UK to stay in the European Union
o I will vote for the UK to leave the European Union regardless of any renegotiation
o If I am not satisfied with the renegotiation, I will vote for the UK to leave the European Union

o I will not vote
o Don’t know / depends
 

Industry news